Today, we’re conducting a MURDER investigation… into the death of base cards….
… along with every other sports card blog and youtube channel in the past 6 months.
“Then why are you wasting our time with another blog about it, Freddy?”
I would never dream of wasting your time.
“Get to it.”
Okay, okay. Are base cards dead?
Yes… and no.
“That’s not an answer, Freddy. It’s a hedge. We don’t pay you nothing for hedges.”
There are layers and exceptions that make a blanket answer impossible and irresponsible… even though my suggestions should most definitely not be construed as financial advice.
“We can’t sue you for shoddy advice. Got it. On with it, man.”
Would I buy any base cards from 2018 on?
No… and yes.
“We’re about to click off this nonsense.”
Okay. Okay. I get it. You’re saying, Freddy, we want a straight answer. Don’t duck this question. I promise. I’m not. There’s a little nuance required.
It’ll be more helpful to drill down and ask more specific questions like… would I buy a bunch of Prizm Luka Doncic base rookie cards? No.
“No sh!t, Freddy.”
If we look at the PSA pop report we’ll see we’re quickly encroaching on 20,000 PSA 10s.
This is Zion Williamson Prizm territory. This isn’t even counting the additional 3,000 Gem mint cards in BGS slabs or 130 wearing tuxes…
… and the PSA 10 pop continues to grow by 50-60 every month. Not a good place to be for long term appreciation no matter what Luka does on the court.
“Tell us something we don’t know, Freddy.”
To put this insane pop count into perspective let’s compare these numbers to the most overprinted era of sports cards, the Junk Wax era which roughly covers cards from 1987 to 1994.
To really bring the point home, let’s pick a super duper star with rookie cards smack dab in the middle of the era… none other than… the big aristotle… Shaquille O’Neal.
If we look at the PSA 10 pop for his flagship Topps rookie card, you’ll see there are 3,579 PSA 10s out of 21,651 graded.
BGS has graded 678 Gem or better Shaqs out of over 4,000 graded.
And SGC adds another 113 gems, out of 2300 cards graded.
That means the COMBINED gem pop from PSA, BGS and SGC is 4,370 out of ~28,000 graded for one of the most popular rookie cards of one of the most popular NBA super duper stars of the most overprinted era of sports cards. There are already 5x more Luka gem prizm base rookie cards than Shaq Topps rookie gems.
To make matters worse if we look at current Shaq Topps rookie sales you’ll see the value of these 4,370 gem cards range from $249.99 for a PSA 10 to $182.50 for a BGS 9.5.
If you prefer tuxes, you can currently grab an SGC 10 for $149.99.
If we look at current sales for Luka’s base prizm rookie, we see that the latest gem sales range from $255 – $400.
There is no bigger fan of Luka than me, but what is the long term upside of his 2018-19 base prizm rookie card if the 30 year old flagship rookie card of a beloved super duper star with 4 NBA championships and 3 NBA Finals MVPS and 1/5th the supply of gem base rookie cards is selling for less?
“Pains us to agree with you Freddy, but you bring up some compelling… and distressing points. There appears to be zero long term upside.”
It pains me too.
Unfortunately this repeating junk wax versus 2018 to present base rookie card pattern repeats itself across all 3 of the most popular US sports…
The iconic Ken Griffey Jr. Upper Deck Rookie Card that was printed on demand…and there was A LOT of demand… only has 7,201 gem cards from PSA, BGS, and SGC combined.
They are currently selling for $800 – $2,000.
Meanwhile, the 2018 Topps Chrome Update Juan Soto has 12,648 gem cards from 14,249 combined graded by PSA, BGS, and SGC.
That 89% combined gem rate has lead to 368 new PSA 10s from the past 90 days alone…while there has only been 6 PSA tens added to the Griffey Upper Deck pop.
The Soto is only going for $200 – $300 right now, but even if he becomes a Top 10 – 15 player of all time like Junior, where is the upside with a pop count that will double the Upper Deck Griffey in the near term at the very least, and may well triple it with the aforementioned 89% gem rate in the long term.
“More compelling and distressing points, Freddy. Are you trying to bum us out?”
Absolutely not. I’m trying to protect my tens of followers. Don’t worry. There are some hidden gems at the end.
Now supply and demand’s effect on price is not always rational in the hobby, but IF Soto pulls a Griffey and becomes a top 15 player of all time… and IF his Topps Chrome Update gem pop miraculously is capped at double Junior’s total pop his post career Topps Chrome Update Gem valuation can’t be much more than $400 – $1,000 tops.
And that includes some HUGE ifs. But don’t even think about touching his base Topps Update. The combined gem pop on that bad boy is already well over 20,000.
For our base football comparison, I selected the 1989 Score Troy Aikman and the 2019 Prizm Kyler Murray.
When we combine the PSA, BGS, and SGC gem pops, we find out there’s 2,680 gem mint Score Aikman’s out of 20, 651 graded.
They’re selling for between $125 to $700 for a PSA 10.
That price gap still makes no rational sense. All the grading companies are guilty of over grading and under grading —
“We know, Freddy. You’re preaching to the choir. Get back on track.”
Sorry.
Meanwhile, Kyler’s Prizm gem pop count has already surpassed the Hall of Famer and 3x Super Bowl Champ’s in a little over 2 years of release… and Kyler’s PSA 10 pop growth is outpacing Troy’s 3 to 1 in the past 90 days.
Kyler’s gem cards are ranging from $100 – $200… which means you can have a BGS 9.5 Aikman for basically the same price as a Kyler BGS 9.5… but if you believe Kyler’s going to be a 4x super bowl champ… please… by all means… base it up.
I know what you’re saying. We get it, Freddy. Base is dead… but am I?
“You just spent A LOT of our time showing us 2018 – present base is in fact dead.”
It’s mostly dead… with a few exceptions. Which is what you’ve been waiting for.
Base cards of Hall of Famers and future Hall of famers from what I’m calling “The Hobby Wasn’t Cool Era” from 1995 to 2016 – 2017ish are solid investments.
As you know, there were way less cards printed, although a higher percentage of those cards were graded compared to the junk wax era of my youth.
But the gem pops of the most popular rookie base cards of “The Hobby Wasn’t Cool era — Kobe, Brady, Bron, Pujols, Curry, Trout, Giannis — are well below the current ultra modern cards from 2018 thru today.
Often times they’re under 3000 or less combined gems as is the case for the 1996 Topps Chrome Kobe, 2000 Bowman and Bowman Chrome Brady, 2009 Topps and Upper Deck Steph, and 2001 Topps Chrome Traded Albert Pujols.
And when it comes to the card with the biggest gem pop of the bunch — the iconic 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout — it just surpassed the 10,000 combined gem mark. That’s only half the pop of the ultra modern print frenzy we’re currently dealing with Zion, Acuna, and Soto… and the card is 7 years older.
So am I just staying away from all ultra modern base?
No.
“WTF, Freddy?”
There are a few low pop, hobby only ultra modern offerings I actually love and think have long term promise.
Let’s go back to Luka. As we’ve discussed his base prizm is persona non grata. I have a few I’ll sell you at a great price if you’re taking the contrarian view that the hobby is still all about that base.
But his hobby only base Mosaic prizm and parallels are grade A, choice ribeye with only the finest marbling.
“Some of us are vegetarians, Freddy.”
Then his base Mosaic prizm and parallels are Tartiflette au Reblochon.
484 PSA 10s.
152 BGS 9.5s or better.
5 SGC 10’s.
641 combined gem Mosaic base Luka rookies out of 1,003 graded.
Compared to 21,362 combined gems from over 40,857 base prizm rookies graded.
There are around 33X more base prizm Luka rookies than the hobby only Mosaic base.
“That’s impossible.”
I didn’t believe it at first, but a quick spin on eBay will drive it home for you. If you search for 2018-19 Mosaic basketball hobby boxes — the only format they came in from Panini’s online only offering — you’ll only find two listings. One for $3,299 and one for $4,995.
Now if you search for 2018-19 Prizm hobby boxes you’ll see a bunch of listings and even a few case offerings. And this doesn’t even count all the blasters, mega boxes, cello boxes, retail boxes, choice boxes, and value packs.
Verdict. 2018-19 Mosaic base basketball is much more rare than prizm base and investable.
“Okay, Freddy. Our interest is piqued. What else you got?
Another hobby only product with investable basketball base cards is Revolution.
Like Mosaic they’re gorgeous and have a much lower pop.
37 SGC 10s.
235 BGS 9.5s or Better.
805 PSA 10s.
1,077 combined gems out of 1,747 graded.
Only 20x more rare than the Prizm base and trust me, there are a lot fewer Revolution hobby and Chinese New Years boxes from 2018-19 left than Prizm in all it’s glorious formats.
And hey, if you get lucky and hit an auto in a Revolution box all their autographs are on card…. which I think I’ve heard is a good thing once or twice.
I’m running long, which is unfortunately the only running i’m currently doing… and I don’t want to give away all my picks in one post so we’ll save the baseball, football, and another modern modern basketball base pick for later.
But to sum it up: Most base cards from 2018 and on are in fact dead to me… except for a Select — pre 2020 — few. You know the exceptions to the rule. Gorgeous looking base cards from hobby only formats with scanty pops.
And sure, there were still way more cards printed in the junk wax era, but grading saved them and gave them value because most of us… including myself… didn’t penny sleeve and top load our Upper Deck Griffeys out of the pack. Only 7,201 combined gems made it out of the over 134,610 graded so far. Insanity.
But grading won’t be able to save ultra modern base rookies because we were penny sleeving, top loading, and grading everything before the shutdowns which has resulted in ultra modern gem pops exceeding junk wax gem pops 3 to 5 fold already.
3x to 5x junk wax era supply is not a good starting point for investment upside.
“You don’t say.”
And taking a peek at the brand new 2022 Series 1 Topps Baseball gold parallel pack odds paints an even uglier picture. They’ve gone from 1:5 in 2019 to 1:38 this year. That means there will be 7 x as much base printed just since 2019.
Ouch.
The only outcome I see saving the high pop 2018 and on base cards, is Fanatics growing the hobby 5x to 10x in the next decade.
Could it happen?
Absolutely.
Should we count on it happening?
Absolutely not.
Be careful out there boys and girls.
As always, I’m Freddy, and you’re welcome!