The past few months I’ve been a selling machine in order to save up for ONE BIG TIME G.O.A.T. in the latest Goldin Auction.
Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr.
Tom Terrific.
The Geriatric Gunslinger.
I don’t think he’s going to like that one….
“No shit, Freddy.”
OR…
… you can simply call him the winningest QB in NFL history… and someone you should probably invest in if you like stable-ish and liquid sports card investments.
“Captain Obvious, much.”
I know, I know. But just because it’s obvious doesn’t make it any less true.
Sit back and relax because here is a story about a man named Brady.
It was Sunday night, 3/13. The last night of the most recent Goldin Auction.
The serial numbered TB12 rookie I’d been tracking for over 6 months was still well within my target price range… which of course means absolutely nothing with last second bids and extended bidding still hours away.
I was sweating.
Nothing new for a plus sized Polish man, but it was more of a metaphorical perspiration.
When I received a phone alert.
Tom Brady was coming out of retirement.
His cards would no doubt get an immediate bump. Fantastic news for my other Bradys, but terrible news for the one I was trying to acquire.
Why the fu$k couldn’t he have waited til Monday to announce his comeback I thought I muttered to myself, but apparently bellowed at a volume that woke my slumbering pregnant wife next to me on the couch.
“Dick move, Freddy.”
It wasn’t calculated. I thought it was an internal thought.
“Still a dick move.”
Yes… and I thought I was out a Brady serial numbered rookie at an affordable price too.
But to my surprise, the Brady didn’t move past the most recent confirmed eBay sales even when factoring in the 20% buyer’s premium.
Now this was the first time I’d bid on a Goldin Auction and the first time I’d experienced extended bidding… but I knew winning the initial auction meant absolutely nothing.
Extended bidding gives everyone that bid on the item at any time 30 minutes after the initial close to bid higher… and the 30 minute clock restarts with every new bid during extended bidding.
This is a brilliant vehicle for Goldin and their sellers to maximize profits… but excruciating for buyers.
One positive is for eBayers who’ve lost a bunch of last second auctions to higher snipes because that sh$t ain’t happening in a Goldin Auction with extended bidding. Extended bidding gives you a redo.
Bad news is that your auction could go for hours longer and cost you a lot more.
But it miraculously didn’t this time. Whether it was beginner’s luck… or people slow to refocus their attention on the return of Brady I had secured my card for a few hundred dollars less than the last few eBay sales within an hour.
May I proudly present the BGS 9.5 quad gem + 2000 Upper Deck Ionix Tom Brady rookie card serial numbered to 2000.
Dragon scale prizms have nothing on this bad boy that was way ahead of its time.
It’s the smallest possible sample size, but I’m still surprised I was able to acquire this BGS quad gem + for under 3K through a big time auction house when the last two confirmed min gem BGS eBay sales were $3300 and $3700.
All I can think of is that most of the well heeled collectors that traditionally stalk high end auctions like Goldin aren’t looking for the medium to low end cards in my wheelhouse and budget.
They choose not to get out of bed for anything less than a Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto Tom Brady or gem mint 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan.
This got me thinking.
Checking out auctions is something to think about if you’re in the market for cards in the $500 – $5,000 range. I was always under the assumption that Auction house auctions were for the more expensive cards and out of my reach…
… but my first foray into a Goldin auction proves it’s possible to get a better deal than on eBay… even with the 20% buyer’s premium.
Speaking of premiums. The last PSA 10 of the Ionix Brady went for $6900… which means I could buy 2 BGS quad 9.5 or better copies and still have a little scratch left over for a box of 2019 Topps Series 2 baseball or 2019 Bowman Chrome.
You know how much I love Tatis…
… and you know anything over a 10-20% premium for one of the major grading companies over another makes no sense.
Again, I’m grading company agnostic and own cards graded by PSA, BGS, SGC, and CSG. I think they all do a good job, and are all guilty of over grading and under grading from time to time.
PSA 10s are harder to achieve you’ll say.
“They are… right?”
Let’s look at the numbers.
There are 109 PSA 10s out of 328 graded for a ~33% gem rate.
And 199 BGS 9.5s or better out of 391 graded for a ~51% gem rate.
“Ha. A PSA 10 is 18% harder to achieve than a BGS 9.5!”
Not so fast. If we drill down deeper, get out a piece of scratch paper and a pen, and comb through the BGS Pop Report and tally them one by one like a lunatic…
… you’ll see that there are only 79 quad gem or better Ionix Bradys out of 391 graded which is equivalent to a ~20% gem rate.
So it’s actually 13% harder to obtain a BGS 9.5 quad gem or better than a PSA 10.
Also of note, is that BGS has graded more of these cards since most were graded pre PSA’s modern dominance from 2017 to today.
Yet a quad BGS 9.5 or quad + is currently worth less than half of a PSA 10.
Come on, hobby. We’re better than that.
A BGS quad 9.5… and even some of the min gems… are equal to a PSA 10.
The fact that it’s not within 10-20% at the very least is an insult to base intelligence.
My first experience with Goldin was a positive one, and I think it’s worth your time to check them out too.
As always, I’m Freddy and you’re welcome.