A few months ago we discussed if base cards are dead… in a video aptly called, “Base Cards are dead… maybe.”
In it, I discuss which base cards are in fact dead, and which base cards are still investable.
As a general rule, I’m not investing in any base cards from 2018 to today… and definitely not any from 2020 on.
Well hellloooo, Captain Obvious.
Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it’s not true.
Get to it, Freddy.
Not into verbal foreplay. I get it.
I was going to say there are exceptions to that rule… and today’s post is about one of those exceptions in the football market.
But it’s important that you not extrapolate that just because I love say… 2018-19 Mosaic basketball base cards that I think 2019 Mosaic basketball base cards are also a good investment… because the print runs and wax formats of each year are drastically different.
2018-19 has downright scanty pops due to being hobby and online only.
2019-20? Not so much.
Nor does any of this mean that I think base cards are a better investment than rpas, parallels, photo variations, autos, or short prints.
Well, helloooo —
If you would give me a minute I was just going to point out that certain modern base cards that weren’t printed into the ground might hold some long term upside.
But this, like all of my ramblings, should most definitely not be construed as financial advice.
Now, shall we WAX on WAX and discuss which 2017 football base cards hold long term upside?
That is why we’re here, Freddy.
You all know how much I heart Patrick Lavon Mahomes II.
Dude is like watching a Superhero on Sundays…
Astute observation.
You guys are brutal today.
Moving on.
So it should come as no surprise to you that today’s post focuses on 2017 football wax.
When looking for investable modern base rookie cards there are two main criteria:
1. a hobby only release which obviously means much less supply
2. cool freakin’ cards.
So which 2017 football release contains undervalued base gems?
Phoenix, baby, Phoenix!
A hobby only product just like it’s inaugural release in 2016, 2017 Phoenix only came in 12 pack hobby boxes that guaranteed 1 rookie card per pack and 1 rookie autograph per box. Which means a roughly 12% chance of pulling a base Patty Ice rookie from a single box.
Printed using Panini’s shiny optichrome technology, Phoenix is a higher end product that has mostly flown under the radar.
I have no clue what optichrome technology means, but it sounds amazing.
While not quite on the same tier as National Treasures, Flawless, Immaculate, and Opulence, they are beautiful mid to lower upper tier cards filled with color variations, cool inserts, and autos.
I know. I know. This video is all about that base.
Being a mid to upper lower tier offering, you would assume that gem mint copies of the Mahomes base Phoenix rookie would be equal to his Optic rookies and more than his paper Donruss at the very least.
We actually would.
But is it?
Let’s find out.
The latest PSA 10 sales for his base Phoenix rookie are $500. Whereas his last base Donruss PSA 10 went for $840 and his Optic PSA 10 fetched a little under $1,000.
The BGS 9.5 sales were much tighter, with the last Phoenix selling for $344, the last Donruss going for $330, and the last Optic clocking in around $500.
This price gap once again makes absolutely no sense.
We concur.
There weren’t any recent SGC 10 or CSG gem mint sales in the last 30 days.
So the higher end base Phoenix rookie in a PSA 10 sells for half the Optic base and a few hundred dollars less than the paper Donruss.
While the BGS 9.5 Optic outsells the base Phoenix by 50% and is basically equal to the Donruss paper.
Total market cap wise Phoenix is behind both the Optic and paper Donruss even though the initial and secondary market wax cost is greater than the paper and in line with Optic.
Which got me wondering what those all important combined gem pops look like?
Shall we take peek.
Do we have a choice?
Of course you do. But you know you want to take a peek.
We do… but stop saying peek. It’s creeping us out.
Checking in on the Donruss Mahomes pops we see there are 1,233 PSA 10s, 600 BGS 9.5s or better, 29 SGC 10s or better, and 13 CSG gems for a combined 1,875 gems.
If we peek at the Optic data we see there are 3,450 PSA 10s, 573 BGS 9.5’s or better, 53 SGC 10s or better, and 17 CSG gems for a total of 4,093 combined gems.
Finally, scouring the Phoenix Mahomes base rookie pop reports, we’ll find 125 PSA 10s, 61 BGS 9.5 gem mint or better, 5 SGC 10s or better, and zero CSG gems for a combined total gem pop of 191.
Not a typo. Only 191.
Damn.
Right!?
That’s crazy.
I know.
So there are 10 x more paper base Donruss gems and 21x more Optic gems, but the Phoenix is still selling for quite a bit less.
And this ratio isn’t going to change. There is… and will continue to be way more Optic and Donruss PSA 10s given its availability in both retail and hobby formats.
If we look at the PSA 10 growth of these 3 cards over the past 90 days you’ll see that there were only 6 new Phoenix PSA 10s, while 52 new Donruss PSA 10s, and 105 new Optic PSA 10s have been added to the pop report.
This means the gem pop gap will continue to widen.
This isn’t to say I’m not a fan of 2017 Optic and Donruss because I am. 2017 print runs are much smaller than 2018 and beyond and I own Patty Cakes versions and wax of both 2017 Optic and 2017 Donruss.
Their print runs on their own are quite modest… but in comparison to Phoenix, the current value of Phoenix base Mahomes offers extraordinary value and upside.
The Phoenix brand is only 6 years old, but so is Optic.
The Phoenix advantage over Optic is it’s hobby only and Patty’s Phoenix card is a cool action shot.
And for those of you who like color variations and RPAs, Phoenix has those too.
My suggestion: Don’t miss out while the lower high end Phoenix is still comparatively cheap.
As always, I’m Freddy… this should most definitely not be considered financial advice… and you’re welcome.