More dizzying than the astronomical prices being paid for 2019-20 Prizm basketball is the amount of wax options available. With 11 buying formats and 40 parallels to chase along with the 300 base cards in the set, it’s impossible and waaaaay too freakin’ expensive to buy them all. So the HUGE question, especially in these financially uncertain times, is if you’re going to dip your toe in these steep wax waters, which format should you focus on from a longer term investment perspective. Though the better question may be if you should invest at all.

Adding to 2019-20 Prizm basketball sticker shock is a queasy sensation germinating from the increased print runs extrapolated from recent BGS and PSA pop reports when compared to previous Prizm releases. The current statistics raise even more eyebrows when you consider 2019-20 Prizm has only been out four months, PSA and Beckett’s grading lead times have grown exponentially longer to the point they weren’t guaranteeing turnaround times, and that was before COVID-19 shut them down. Which has to make us think there are A LOT more Zion and Ja Prizm base rookies waiting to goose their respective pop report totals.

Basketball’s popularity continues to expand globally, and with it global demand for basketball cards not seen in baseball, football or hockey… but is there, or will there truly be enough global demand to keep the increased supply trading at higher and higher levels in five, ten, or twenty years. These increased print runs combined with the increased initial buy-in cost, leaves many investors and collectors with more risk exposure and uncertainty of the long term potential growth. If Zion turns into the next Jordan or Lebron, these arguments become moot. If he doesn’t, and Ja or another rookie(s) can’t fill the Zion-sized void, we’re looking at some HUGE potential losses if we’re buying at current prices.

I don’t like losing… and I don’t want you to lose either. So what am I investing in from the 2019-20 Prizm lineup? Two formats stand out to me, and they have one thing in common…

… ROOKIE VARIATIONS. I think when collectors look back in ten years at the 2019-20 Prizm basketball release, it’s going to be all about the rookie variations… and the wax that offers a chance to pull them. There’s only two: Walmart hanger boxes and Fast Break boxes.

While the base Prizm rookie card has replaced Topps Chrome and become the flagship basketball rookie card to own since its inception in 2012, I feel the first ever base variations will surpass them in popularity, and most importantly, value due to their relative scarcity. Taking a peek at the current BGS and PSA pop reports paints a happier long term landscape of their ability to hold value when compared to their base brethren.

As you can see, rookie variation quantity in both reports is ~ 10% of base output to date. Variation prices aren’t anywhere close to 10x base values right now, but I believe you’ll see variations create more price separation in the years to come.

FREDDY FORECAST: Hanger boxes will be $175 and Fast Break boxes will be trading at $600 by end of 2020-21 season.

Click here and here for eBay’s current hanger and fast break box listings.

As always, i’m Freddy… and you’re welcome.

*For those collectors and investors that chase the rainbow or collect specific parallels, check out this extensive breakdown from Beckett that details which parallels are found in each format.