Being a Syracuse Orange fan having grown up in Upstate NY, I was ecstatic when Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell declared for early entry into the 2017 NBA draft after constantly doing this…

… and this…

against us.

Whenever I notice a college athlete repeatedly standing out in a sea of good athletes, I take note. The tenacious d, 3 point shot making, and elite athleticism jumped off the screen every time I watched him own Syracuse. Owning Syracuse doesn’t guarantee NBA stardom, but for every Shabazz Napier there is a Kemba Walker, and I had a feeling Donovan was going to be the latter in his prime at the very least.

With my beloved Clippers drafting late in the first round, I knew my dreams of owning a “45” Clippers jersey emblazoned with Mitchell across the back would not be realized until free agency, or maybe ever. But the sports card collector in me is team agnostic, and I found Donovan’s combination of tenacity, 40.5” vertical, and high character intriguing. I saw a young Russell Westbrook with a better stroke… a magnetic highlight reel waiting to unspool every second he’s on a basketball court.

Fast forward three years and 4,500 points later, and Donovan Mitchell has joined Michael Jordan, Dwyane Wade, Allen Iverson, Mitch Ritchmond, and Vince Carter as the only players to score 4,500 points in their first 200 games. All but Wade and Carter are in the Hall of Fame, and both are virtual locks for eventual enshrinement.

Will the 23 year old Mitchell join them? After scintillating, but inefficient 2017-2018 and 2018-19 seasons, his true shooting percentage and player efficiency ratings have reached personal highs in 2019-20 working alongside better shooters and floor spacing.

He’s a natural leader who takes over a game when the team needs him, but can also function within a team setting. His infectious personality, blue collar work ethic, and highlight reel talent enthralls Utah Jazz and casual NBA fans alike… but then why are his rookie card values more Bruce Banner than Incredible HULK?

1. Market, market, market – If Donovan was donning his hometown Knick white, blue, and orange, his cards would be triple their current value. Though we shouldn’t wish working for James Dolan on any player. A championship in Utah could change that. So could a free agent change of scenery when his rookie contract expires. Here’s hoping for either, or both.

2. Position – Guards and centers, outside generational outliers like Steph Curry and Shaq, don’t historically carry the same hobby weight and popularity as ball dominant wings and point forwards like Jordan, Lebron, Magic, Giannis, Kawhi, and Luka. 

so why invest?

Donovan’s growth into a ball dominant combo guard with improved decision making mediates the hobby’s positional slight. Fans and collectors love points and captivating athleticism, and Donovan supplies both in bunches while playing for a perennial playoff contender in the wild, wild western conference.

He has the work ethic and drive to maximize his greatness and his first two and a half season’s production show an upward tilt suggesting continued year to year improvement.

I’ll bet on high character, high IQ, athletically gifted scorers with a honey badger’s tenacity all day… especially when his top grade rookie cards are still so cheap. He doesn’t have to go full HULK for collectors to buy in now and return a profit in 2-3 years. He can easily be former NBA MVP Russell Westbrook with a better shot and decision making.

a few cards to target

Prizm is the Topps Chrome of basketball, the base rookie you have to have in your collection. Currently, BGS 9.5 Prizm base rookies can be had at auction for $40-$50. You can chase the Prizm rainbow of varied scarcity and find some bargains too. I snagged a red, white, and blue Prizm graded BGS 9.5 for $30 before the start of the season. I find myself gravitating to BGS 9.5’s instead of PSA 10’s. You end up paying a premium for the PSA 10, even though the card in many instances, isn’t in any better condition than the BGS 9.5. Grading is subjective and riddled with human opinion and error, and I believe BGS 9.5’s are currently a better value. Collectors that prefer having all their cards in their collection graded by one company or another — I am grader agnostic as long as it’s graded by one of the big three — can also buy BGS 9.5’s, bust them, and cross them over to PSA for a 10… a nice little arbitrage opportunity when/if it works… which it usually does with a BGS 9.5 that has all 9.5 subgrades or better.

FREDDY FORECAST: $100 by end of 20-21 season.

Silver prizms in BGS 9.5 currently range from $180-$300. They’re obviously pricier than the base, but they’ll also experience higher % growth if he explodes. The BGS and PSA pop reports don’t support the 6x price tag compared to the base in terms of supply, but collector demand for silver prizms will keep their values above the standard multiplier for the foreseeable future.

FREDDY FORECAST: $450 by end of 20-21 season.

Personally I prefer Mosaic Prizms over the base Prizm. It’s an action shot, more scarce than base Prizm, and a much better looking card. I’ve seen Mosaic Prizm auctions won for $35-$50 recently, though they are more difficult to attain at this price point.

FREDDY FORECAST: $125 by end of 20-21

most flash for your cash

I love that Select is hobby only and the pop reports are ~10% of the base Prizm rookies. The print runs are lower, the card quality is equal at worst, and it’s cheaper. I also believe in 10-20 years select has a chance to catch and surpass Prizm in value. Select base #11 auctions have been won for $20-$30 the past few weeks. But why chance an auction when you can buy a BGS 9.5 right now for $20 from this eBay seller like I just did: https://ebay.to/3dm3SWY

FREDDY FORECAST: $80 by end of 20-21 season.

If you’d like my insight on which higher end serial #’d, colored Prizm, and auto Donovan Mitchell rookie cards to target, drop me a line.

As always, i’m Freddy… and you’re welcome.