Today is the 1st installment of DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE, where I analyze which HOT cards are overvalued and poised for long term depreciation. While not as pleasant as prospecting hidden gems, it’s equally important to avoid these expensive hobby landmines… like investing at the height of the market and not being able to exit your position before said player’s market drops like Chris Farley near a coffee table.

Fair warning… a lot of you are going to hate today’s post. But it’s my website, and I’ve sworn an oath to do my best to protect your sports card investments to the best of my ability… which I admit is highly debatable. Enough about me and my unsolicited advice. If you’re an NBA collector or investor residing in the metro Atlanta area you may want to click on another post because the subject of today’s inaugural DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE is none other than Atlanta Hawks All-Star shooting wizard and hobby darling… Trae Young.

Before you hang me with your digital noose, let’s review 4 well established historical drivers for a basketball player’s hobby following and sustainability of their long term value and growth:

1. swag

… or exciting style of play. That’s one BIG FAT check for Trae… but before you Ice Trae collectors and investors go envisioning buying that sweet brand new Honda Odyssey with your profits, this is the last checkmark you’ll see next to Trae’s name. If this was the most important determining factor driving sustained hobby values and growth, White Chocolate rookie cards would be selling for 4 figures.

They are not.

#2. championships

… or likelihood of being in the championship discussion for years to come. No and No. The Atlanta Hawks are one of the worst teams in the league and didn’t improve at all in Trae’s second season…even with the addition of two top 10 picks in Deandre Hunter and Cam Reddish.

#3. market

Atlanta is the 10th largest market in the country, but if you’re routinely falling a few thousand tickets short of a sellout during the Hawks heydays of Dominique Wilkins and his Eastern conference battles with Larry and Michael… I can’t call you a basketball Mecca… or Medina.

Atlanta will not attract superstar free agents. If Lebron couldn’t get Bosh and Wade to come to Cleveland, I don’t see Giannis and players of his ilk being wooed by Trae.

#4. position

Basketball hobby superstardom is driven by ball dominant wings and point forwards. Michael. Larry. Magic. Kobe. Lebron. Giannis. Luka. The occasional transcendent center with a Shaq-sized personality and a revolutionary point guard with 3 NBA championships and 2 MVP’s… and no… Trae is not… and will never be Steph.

but he could be the next steph curry, freddy!

There you go shout typing again. But, Freddy you clown. Trae Young is already an All-Star at 21 and outside of Steph Curry there are few people that can do can this…

True. 

so he could buck the trend and be the next steph curry!

No. He is an otherworldly shooter and a wizard with the ball in his hands, but he is an entertaining stat chaser who’s historically bad defense absolutely MURDERS his team’s chances of playing winning basketball.

Pick any metric that adequately accounts for defensive contributions.

ESPN’s defensive real plus/minus scale. Young ranks last of 490 players (-4.66). According to Basketball Index’s defensive box/plus minus scale, his -2.7 mark ranks among the league’s worst. Curry on the other hand is an above average defender at the point guard position with slightly positive defensive real plus minus numbers due to his superior effort and attention to defensive coverage details and communication.  Effort and focus on the defensive end of the floor is something that has plagued Trae since college.

Speaking of college. You would think a transcendent talent would be able to get his Oklahoma team past a NCAA first round matchup with the mighty Rams of Rhode Island. He was not. What did Steph Curry do in college?

Oh that’s right. He took tiny Davidson on his shoulders and came within one shot of beating eventual National Champion Kansas in the Elite Eight.

Winning and defense matter, and I don’t see Trae doing much of either in his career.

Trae doesn’t even match up well with Steph in shooting… his calling card.

Trae hit 36% of his 3 point shots this season. Better than the 34% league average, but nowhere near Steph’s worst year at 41% from deep, and no where close to Steph’s 44% 3-point percentage in his 2nd year.

And to make matters worse, the 64% of the time Ice Trae misses those 3s, opponents grab defensive boards on 75% of those misses. Opponents then rack up an astounding 127 points per 100 possessions after an Ice Trae miss. The league average offensive efficiency following a missed 3 is 112. The Dallas Mavericks #1 ranked most efficient offense clocks in at 113.8 overall. That means 75% of Trae Young’s missed 3s turn EVERY opponent into the most efficient offensive team in the league by 13 points per 100 possessions. That’s a greater difference than between the best and worst teams in the NBA.

Still not getting through to you?

Maybe you’ll listen to a 2 time NBA championship coach who’s been around guys like Lebron and D-wade on what it means to be a max-level player on a championship team.

“It’s not about stats. It’s not about that final number on the box score. It’s not about whatever 2K numbers you can get. It’s not. It’s about how your team functions and are you winning because of a player. Too often it’s about stats and players that can pile up stats at a young age.”

Does it sound like Erik Spoelstra has visions of a free agent Trae Young dancing in his head?

Look. Can you make money flipping Trae Young in the near term while he’s still in his development phase and not expected to win?

Sure. I’m just saying I’d rather cash out early before other collectors and investors come to the same realization that his style of play isn’t going to translate to actual winning and his values stagnate and decline.

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE… and don’t let Ice trae leave you feeling like the Night King in Godswood.

That’s going to do it for today. I’d love to hear your comments and suggestions below.

As always, I’m Freddy… and you’re welcome.

If you prefer watching instead of reading your sports card content, please check out the Freddy Find YouTube Channel or click here to watch on the website.