My parents recently dropped off my old childhood boxes of cards — thanks for always supporting my avocations Mom and Pops — and I came across this beauty proudly certifying that I owned 1 out of a 150,000 Classic 1st Round baseball draft pick sets. One of 150,000!

This got me to noodling on a hobby topic that’s tampered enthusiasm amidst the historic prosperity experienced in the past 3 years: Are we entering a second Junk Wax Era?

We hope that the guardians at the hobby gate — Topps and Panini — resist short term greed in favor of sustaining long term hobby health… but there are a few troubling benchmarks that suggest there is a dramatic increase in print runs and product offerings. Not necessarily Junk Wax Era level production yet, but we’re definitely trending more in the wrong direction if we want the cards of today to retain substantial value in the future. Count me amongst those that do. I love collecting rookie cards of my favorite players, but I also enjoy a dynamic market, and the Stock Market-like thrill of buying and selling sports cards at the right moment — or the agony of selling too soon — to help defray the cost of my future sports card purchases.

If we take a quick peek at the pop reports of the most popular base rookie cards and pack odds of pulling parallels of standard hobby favorites from the past three years there is no doubt quantities are on the rise. Panini’s decision to turn Mosaic and Select from a hobby only product to hobby and retail also seems like a tone deaf move.

What are my suggestions to combat increased print runs and remove that queasy early 90s feeling?

Focus on rare and numbered parallels. Rookie autos. Sealed wax formats that offer the opportunity to pull the most popular parallels and inserts… and honestly… I’m not buying any sealed wax from 2020 on unless I get it at retail prices or heavily discounted.

I’ve been targeting:

2019 Baseball for Tatis and Vlad Jr.

2018 Topps Update has a chance to be historic with Ohtani, Acuna, and Soto.

2018-19 Basketball for Luka primarily but the entire class is loaded with potential studs.

2017-18 Basketball for Tatum and Mitchell. A heavily underrated longer term play unless Mitchell carries the Jazz to the Finals.

2017 Football for Mitchell Trub… you know it’s all about Mahomes, baby.

Stay diligent and invest wisely.

As always, I’m Freddy… and you’re welcome.