What did Peyton Manning ever do to you?

Whatever Peyton did to most sports card collectors and investors had to be downright awful and very, VERY personal. Steal your girlfriend or punch your Mom in the face kind of awful and personal. Which seems hyperbolically ridiculous and totally out of character… except for his Emmy-worthy SNL performance in this infamous United Way short.

How else then do we explain the absolute disrespect for his rookie cards and the relatively puny prices they garner after 5 MVP awards, 2 Super Bowl Championships, a Super Bowl MVP, and a legendary turn as SNL host?

My sports card investing advice usually centers around under appreciated young studs ready to make a leap, are stuck in a bad market, or whose team is about to take a step forward after a key acquisition. Sometimes I unearth a low pop card flying under the radar like the 2016-17 Upper Deck Euroleague Patterned Rainbow Luka Doncic or make a bet on a baseball unicorn when he’s struggling to stay healthy and his prices are obscenely low.

But today is the first day in Freddy Find history that I’m able to recommend collectors and investors buy an iconic 1st ballot Hall of Fame QB’s low pop rookie cards for sometimes less than half of what a 2020 Justin Herbert base Prizm in PSA 10 will set you back.

Yes. You read that correctly. Not quite sure how this is possible in 2021. But then again I still don’t really understand the magical technology behind phones and the internet. I digress.

Tom Brady is the consensus GOAT and this little blog is not even going to attempt to make a case for Peyton as GOAT because there isn’t one. Most advanced statistical analysis suggest Tom Brady outperformed Peyton Manning in their head to head matchups. Though I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out two crucial career altering factors:

1. Playing in the AFC Least aided New England’s playoff seeding and ability to attain home field advantage throughout the playoffs during most of their rivalry. Tom owns an 11-6 record head to head versus The Sheriff, but Peyton won 3 out of their 5 playoff matchups. Those 3 victories came at home with the 2 losses… you guessed it… coming in Foxboro.
2. The game of football doesn’t allow QBs to actually compete head-to-head. Tom went up against the defenses of the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos, while Peyton had to deal with the best defensive coach of all time in Bill Belichick. Not exactly an apples to apples comparison. Don’t believe me. Let’s look at the Pro Football Reference defensive rankings of the Patriots and Colts/Broncos in the years in which they met in the playoffs. In 2003, the Patriots had the top ranked defense. The Colts were 20th. In 2004, the Patriots trotted out the 3rd ranked defense. The Colts were 19th. In 2006, the Patriots were 2nd. The Colts were 23rd. In 20013, the Patriots were 10th. Broncos ranked 22nd. The 2015 Broncos were the only defense in Peyton’s career in his matchups with Tom where he had the better defense. That squad was the 4th ranked defense while New England was 10th. So to summarize, Peyton won 3 out of his 5 playoff matchups against Tom while playing with a far inferior defense in all of those matchups except for one.

This isn’t a GOAT conversation I swear.

It’s impossible to debate in the championship obsessed USA against 10 Super Bowl trips and 7 Lombardi trophies. But if Tom is all alone at the QB peak of Mount Olympus, then Peyton Manning is the snow line just underneath the summit.

Given that rarified air and Peyton’s status as a consensus Top 5 QB of all time, I expected his comparable cards to be valued at 75% of The GOAT’s, but they don’t even approach 25 percent. What!? How can this be? Surely the Brady’s must be more rare or condition sensitive. Right!? RIGHT!? Let’s take a look at the comps.

Brady’s 2000 Bowman Chrome vs. Peyton’s 1998 Topps Chrome

Brady didn’t have a Topps Chrome release in 2000, so his Bowman Chrome is his only shiny flagship offering. Therefore it’s his most popular base rookie card a la Peyton’s 1998 Topps Chrome.

Taking a quick peek at those all important combined BGS, PSA, and SGC pop numbers posted above we see that even though there were ~2,400 more Peyton Topps Chrome rookies graded compared to the 2000 Brady Bowman Chrome, there are actually ~850 less gem mint — BGS 9.5, 10 and Black Label, SGC 10 + SGC 10 Pristine, and PSA 10 — Peyton Topps Chrome rookies.

Those aren’t typos. Currently a BGS 9.5 2000 Bowman Chrome Tom Brady is selling for ~10x more than a BGS 9.5 1998 Topps Chrome Peyton Manning… and the PSA 10 price gap isn’t much less ridiculous at ~6x. Speaking of ridiculous, the 2x price gap between a BGS 9.5 and PSA 10 is criminal. But that is not the point of this post, and we’ll use the Brady and Manning research to punctuate this grading valuation absurdity in a future article.

2000 Upper Deck Tom Brady vs. 1998 Upper Deck Peyton Manning

Going back to those combined pop reports, the total gem count for both cards is similar — 473 Manning’s to 402 Brady’s — even though there are about 764 more Peyton’s graded in total.

As with the Bowman Chrome/Topps Chrome comparison, there is not nearly enough difference in total graded or gem mint cards to account for the gross price discrepancy depicted below.

Peyton’s pattern of being an appallingly undervalued asset continues with his Upper Deck rookie. A BGS 9.5 is currently 1/8th the value of Tom Brady’s BGS 9.5 and the PSA 10 gulph is ~10x. Blasphemy. Pure blasphemy.

Maybe this preposterous valuation gulf doesn’t translate to rare parallels.

2000 Ultra Gold Medallion Tom Brady vs. 1998 Ultra Gold Medallion Peyton Manning

I don’t intend to kill the ending, but there are zero plot twists coming in this nonsensical sports card movie. If it’s possible, this example is even more ludicrous. There are ~100 less Ultra Gold Medallion Peyton Manning’s in the graded universe with a lower BGS and PSA gem rate, and Tom Brady is selling for ~7X Peyton Manning.

I’m not a hedge fund quantitative analyst or a Google data scientist, but I’m pretty confident Peyton Manning is undervalued and should have a market value of at least 50% of Tom Brady’s. There are very few moments to buy blue chip assets with considerable upside, but this seems like one of those unicorn opportunities.

“But Freddy, didn’t you just cherry pick 3 anamolies?”

Nope. I wouldn’t do that to you. The insane Peyton Manning discount carries over to the other cards I researched too. Black Diamond. Check. Metal/Metal Universe. Check. Crown Royale. Check. Bowman. Check. All had similar combined pop reports and gem rates for both Tom and Peyton.

“Fine, Freddy. What Peyton rookie cards do you like?”

Honestly. All of them right now. He’s a top 5 all time NFL Quarterback being enshrined in the Hall of Fame in August who has a likeable personality, successful ESPN show, and a bevy of national commercials that guarantees he remains in the public eye for the rest of his life. And he’s soooooo cheap.

“I can’t buy all his cards, Freddy. Give me a few picks with huge upside.”

I hear you. I’ll give you two I love. The aforementioned 1998 Ultra Gold Medallion Peyton Manning has a comically low overall graded and gem pop. In 23 years, BGS has only graded 188 of this gold variation. They’ve given 0 Pristine and 0 Black Label grades with only 37 Gem Mint 9.5 grades. 37! And there are only 39 PSA 10s! You can currently buy one of the 37 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint cards on eBay for $425.00 + tax + $10 shipping if you click here. It is not my card. I don’t know the seller and I will receive bupkis if you buy it. You’re welcome. It’s a steal.

My other favorite is the 1998 Playoff Absolute Draft Picks Blue Die-Cut. I don’t think you can beat a team color match rare parallel at an astonishing price.

How rare? Only 30 have been graded by PSA. This is one of 10 gems. BGS has graded 44. There are 0 Pristine 10’s and 0 Black labels and only 17 9.5’s… and you can buy one of those 17 BGS 9.5 gem mint copies for $199 + tax + $5 shipping right now, right here. Again. It is not my card. I don’t know the seller, and I will receive bupkis if you buy it. You’re welcome. It’s another steal.

FREDDY FORECAST: Peyton’s rookie cards will be worth at least 1/3 to 1/2 of Tom Brady’s rookie cards in the next 5 to 10 years.

As always, I’m Freddy… and you’re welcome.