Welcome, dear readers, to a world where the quest for absurdity in sports card investments — nee speculation — knows no bounds. Today, we find ourselves diving into the curious case of Desmond Ridder rookie cards. Strap in for a wild ride as we embark on a journey that will leave you scratching your head, laughing, and questioning the sanity of the sports card investing world.

First and foremost, who is Desmond Ridder, and why on earth are we talking about his rookie cards? Most likely because one sports card influencer — Sports Card Investor Geoff Wilson— bought his Prizm Black Finite 1 of 1 rookie auto from another influencer, Roth Cards, for $23,000 at the Dallas Card Show.

Good investment? For Roth, yes. He quick flipped scarcity and manufactured a market from thin air for a quarterback with a low probability of being an all time great… which is exactly what he needs to become for this card not to eventually go to zero.

Geoff will most likely be left holding the bag unless he finds a greater fool and convinces him — or her — on Desmond’s potential after a hot stretch of the season. Which is entirely possible given Atlanta’s soft schedule which is rated the second easiest in the NFL.

Don’t get me wrong, Desmond Ridder does have some potential. He entered the NFL with a fair amount of hype coming out of the University of Cincinnati… but he hasn’t done anything to warrant $23,000 hype.

That’s a whole other stratosphere of hype.

A stratosphere of hype not normally reserved for quarterbacks who are inaccurate on 24.2% of their throws in college.

That’s not good.

It’s also the highest amongst the quarterbacks drafted in the 2022 class, a class that isn’t exactly the vaunted 1984 class. Compounded by tighter throwing windows in the NFL and investing in Desmond Ridder rookie cards starts to resemble betting your life savings on a lottery ticket… or starting a diet right before Thanksgiving dinner.

Both are generally frowned upon.

Roth admits in one of his two Ridder videos – here and here – that it’s easier to sell hype than production.

Translation: they have no clue who’s good. They are simply buying low, pumping the flawed player who was cheaper for a reason, and selling their self created hype. 

Don’t misinterpret the $23,000 sale as their confidence in Desmond Ridder long term. If Roth truly believed in Ridder’s potential, he’d hold the card. 

And Geoff has proven time and again with his picks — Lonzo Ball, Will Grier, James Harden — that he has no clue how to evaluate professional talent.

But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that Desmond Ridder becomes the next Tom Brady and leads the Atlanta Falcons to multiple Super Bowl victories. Even in this fantasy scenario, investing in his rookie cards remains a dubious proposition. Why, you ask?

Before becoming the Falcons head coach, Arthur Smith was the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans. You know, the Titans whose offense is still focused on Derrick Henry running the ball and Ryan Tannehill managing play action off said runs. Not exactly the most dynamic or quarterback centric offensive systems.

Ryan Tannehill is a decent starting quarterback in the NFL.
But ask yourself, how many Ryan Tannehill cards are selling for $23,000 today? Struggling for a comp? Here’s a reference point to help guide you: His pop 47 Topps Chrome XFractor PSA 10 rookie card recently sold for $21.50.

That’s it.

Atlanta loves running the ball more than a caffeine-addicted squirrel loves nuts. Led by Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson, Atlanta had the most rushing attempts in the NFL last year… and then they went out and added the dynamic Bijan Robinson with the 8th pick in this year’s draft. 

Which means Atlanta is most likely going to run the ball even more… not less… which translates to the running game getting outsized credit for any potential team success. 

This could lead to more winning and improved performance from Desmond Ridder, but the hobby doesn’t remember game managers. Ridder’s long term relevance is highly questionable and unlike his 1st round brethren, 3rd rounders don’t usually get the same patience if they struggle.

If he doesn’t prove he’s THE GUY this year, Atlanta will be calling another quarterback’s name in next year’s draft.

He can’t just improve. He has to prove he has top 10 quarterback potential THIS YEAR or Atlanta most likely moves off of him. It’s like investing in a startup and expecting it to become the next Amazon after 2 years.

That’s terrible odds, my friends.

“But wait!” you might exclaim, “Investing is all about taking risks!” Absolutely, investing or speculating involves risks, but taking calculated risks is vastly different from going all-in on an absurd and improbable notion.

If you’re a Falcons fan collecting for fun, go ahead and snag those Desmond Ridder rookie cards. But remember, investing and collecting are not the same things, and mistaking one for the other might cause you financial indigestion… or worse.

Whatever you do, don’t misinterpret a wealthy person with money to burn on their hobby or a likable used car salesman taking advantage of the wealthy person with money to burn on their hobby, as having any clue at which quarterbacks to invest in.

When he retires, that Desmond Ridder won’t be worth $23,000.

But you knew that.

If you are interested in cards I do like as long term investments or speculation plays, be sure to check out my King Kong Cards, Find of the Day, and eBay Steal of the Day posts.

As always, I’m Freddy, this is most definitely NOT financial advice… and you’re welcome.